Tropical System now in the Gulf of Mexico, Conditions Remain Unfavorable for Development
Tropical System now in the Gulf of Mexico, Conditions Remain Unfavorable for Development
Published September 3, 2021
Updated September 5, 2021
On Sunday, September 5, 2021, at 8 pm the National Weather Service National Hurricane Center advised that disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding waters are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. This tropical system is forecast to move northward or northeastward toward the Gulf Coast slowly over the next few days.
Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development to occur, though they are expected to become marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation by late Tuesday, September 7, 2021. The system is then expected to cross the southeastern United States beginning midweek.
- Formation chance through 48 hours is low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days is low, near 30 percent.
Original information about this tropical system published September 3, 2021, can be found below.
The National Weather Service National Hurricane Center has advised that a surface trough over portions of Central America and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move west-northwestward during the next day or two, bringing locally heavy rains to these areas. The disturbance is expected to move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend, September 4 or 5, 2021, and then move northwestward to northward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week. However, unfavorable upper-level winds could limit significant development during that time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours is low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days is low, near 30 percent.
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