Louisiana – On May 23, 2024, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS) released their official Hurricane Outlook for the 2024 season, projecting an active hurricane season with an 85% chance of above-normal activity. This forecast is influenced by several key factors, which together suggest a heightened potential for more frequent and intense storms.
1. Transition to La Niña:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is expected to transition to La Niña conditions. La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This change tends to reduce wind shear in the tropics. Wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction with height, can disrupt the formation and intensification of hurricanes. With weaker wind shear, hurricanes have a better chance to grow stronger and maintain their structure. Additionally, La Niña conditions result in lighter trade winds, which help minimize ocean cooling and maintain warmer sea surface temperatures.
2. Elevated Sea Surface Temperatures:
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are currently near or above record levels, and this trend is expected to continue through the summer and fall. Warmer ocean waters provide more energy to fuel storm development, leading to stronger and potentially more frequent hurricanes. This abundant oceanic heat content creates a more conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
3. Enhanced West African Monsoon:
The 2024 hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal West African monsoon. The monsoon season in West Africa can generate African easterly waves, which are clusters of thunderstorms that move from east to west across the Atlantic Ocean. These waves can serve as seeds for some of the strongest and longest-lived Atlantic hurricanes. An active monsoon season increases the likelihood of more frequent and powerful storms originating from these waves.
As always, it is crucial for residents in hurricane-prone areas to be prepared for the upcoming season. It only takes one storm hitting your location to make it a bad season. Ensure you have an emergency plan in place, stay informed about weather updates, and follow the guidance of local authorities.
While the forecast anticipates an active season, it is important to approach the information with caution and preparedness, rather than fear. Understanding the factors that contribute to hurricane activity can help communities better anticipate and respond to potential threats.