Louisiana – Tropical Storm Rafael has been upgraded to a Hurricane as it continues to move toward the Gulf of Mexico. As of the evening of November 5, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have located the center of Hurricane Rafael near latitude 19.3 North and longitude 79.9 West. The storm is moving northwest at approximately 15 miles per hour (24 kilometers per hour) and is expected to continue on this trajectory over the next several days.
According to forecasters, Hurricane Rafael is expected to make landfall in the Cayman Islands tonight, followed by a close approach to western Cuba on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the storm is predicted to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Although Rafael is likely to maintain its hurricane intensity deep into the Gulf, it will eventually encounter a wall of wind shear and dry air. This encounter is expected to cause the storm to weaken rapidly as it approaches the Louisiana coast this weekend.
Over the next 24 hours, Rafael is anticipated to undergo steady to rapid intensification, followed by additional strengthening before making landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 115 miles (185 kilometers) from the center of the storm. The minimum central pressure, estimated from dropsonde data collected by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, is 987 millibars (29.15 inches).
Residents in the affected areas are advised to monitor the storm’s progress closely and follow any evacuation orders issued by local authorities. As the storm continues to strengthen, it is essential to stay informed and prepared for the potential impacts of Hurricane Rafael.
In the Gulf of Mexico, wind shear refers to a change in wind direction and speed with height. This phenomenon can disrupt the rotation of a hurricane, causing it to weaken. Dry air, on the other hand, can evaporate the moisture that fuels a hurricane, leading to a decrease in its intensity. As Rafael navigates these conditions, its trajectory and intensity will be closely monitored by forecasters.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft play a crucial role in collecting data on hurricanes like Rafael. By flying into the storm and releasing dropsondes, these aircraft can gather critical information on the storm’s pressure, wind speed, and direction. This data is then used to refine forecast models and provide more accurate predictions of the storm’s behavior.
