Louisiana – Hurricane Rafael, a storm that had previously placed Louisiana within its cone of probability, has shifted its forecast track away from the state. As of the evening of November 6, Rafael’s center was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 83.6 West, with the storm moving northwest at 13 miles per hour (20 km/h).
According to the National Hurricane Center, Rafael is expected to continue its northwestward motion tonight, followed by a turn toward the west at a slower forward speed on Thursday. This general motion is anticipated to persist through Saturday, with the storm forecast to move away from western Cuba and over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is then expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.
While the storm’s track has shifted away from Louisiana, residents should still remain vigilant. November’s unique weather patterns, characterized by jet stream winds that are closer to the storm, can lead to unexpected turns and shifts in the forecast. This unpredictability can result in 90-degree turns, reversal of direction, and other unusual trajectory changes.
As of the latest update, maximum sustained winds within Rafael have reached 105 miles per hour (165 km/h), with higher gusts reported. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 969 millibars (28.62 inches).
Some weakening of the storm is possible tonight and Thursday, although little change in strength is expected on Friday. Despite this, Rafael remains a significant threat, and residents in the affected areas should continue to monitor the storm’s progress closely.
