Lake Charles, Louisiana - Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 18 is rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean, prompting the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue advisories and watches for several regions. As of Sunday, November 3, the NHC has initiated advisories for PTC 18, which is forecast to become a tropical storm by Monday and potentially a hurricane by Tuesday night.
According to the NHC, PTC 18 is expected to pass near Jamaica on Monday night and Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. The system is forecast to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the island, with a risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Residents in the Florida Keys are also advised to closely monitor the system, as tropical storm watches could be required for portions of the Keys tonight or early Monday.
As PTC 18 continues to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, it is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast as a tropical storm later this week. However, due to uncertainties in the long-range forecast, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur in this region. Residents in the northern Gulf Coast are advised to regularly monitor updates to the forecast for the latest information.
The NHC warns that PTC 18 will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western portions of Cuba through mid-week. This heavy rainfall could lead to flooding and mudslides in these regions. Additionally, heavy rainfall could then spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to late portions of the week.
Conditions in the Caribbean and southern Gulf are favorable for PTC 18 to strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. However, early indications suggest that the further north it tracks, weakening is possible due to high wind shear across the northern half of the Gulf.
Rafael is the next name on the list of tropical cyclones, which could be assigned to PTC 18 if it strengthens into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Residents in the affected regions are advised to stay informed about the latest forecast and warnings.