Lake Charles, Louisiana – A slow-moving disturbance over the northwest Gulf is boosting rain chances across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana early this week, with the greatest risk for heavy downpours through Wednesday before a more typical summer pattern returns late week. Forecast rainfall totals through Wednesday are generally less than 1.5 inches, though localized pockets could see 1 to 3 inches where storms repeatedly track over the same areas. No impacts from an organized tropical system are expected locally over the next several days, despite the National Hurricane Center monitoring three disturbances in the Atlantic Basin.
Read about the tropical weather outlook as of August 11, 2025
Here’s the five-day outlook for Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana, updated Monday, August 11, 2025.
Daytime forecast
- Monday: Partly sunny, with a 50–70% chance of thunderstorms. Highs 90–94°F.
- Tuesday: Partly sunny, highest rain chance of the week at 60–80%. Highs 89–92°F.
- Wednesday: Partly sunny, 50–70% chance of thunderstorms. Highs 88–92°F.
- Thursday: Partly sunny, 40–60% chance of thunderstorms. Highs 91–95°F.
- Friday: Partly sunny, 40–60% chance of thunderstorms. Highs 91–95°F.
Nighttime forecast
- Monday Night: 20–40% chance of rain. Lows 72–77°F.
- Tuesday Night: 20–30% chance of rain. Lows 72–77°F.
- Wednesday Night: 10–20% chance of rain. Lows 72–78°F.
- Thursday Night: 10–20% chance of rain. Lows 73–78°F.
What’s driving the pattern
- A disturbance crawling west across the northwest Gulf into Texas is helping to pull deeper tropical moisture into central and southern Louisiana through midweek. That moisture, combined with daytime heating, will fuel scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and early evening.
- Torrential downpours are possible in the most robust storms today through Wednesday, which could lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas.
- By late week, the subtropical ridge (a broad zone of high pressure common in summer) is expected to build in, supporting a more typical pattern: hot, humid days with scattered, mainly afternoon storms, and muggy nights.
Rainfall expectations and hazards
- Through Wednesday (6 a.m. Monday through midnight Wednesday), most locations should see less than 1.5 inches of rain, but localized 1–3 inch totals are reasonable where storms persist or repeat.
- Lightning, brief gusty winds, and reduced visibility in heavy rain are the primary concerns. Street flooding is possible in spots during peak downpours.
- NHC monitoring: Three tropical disturbances are being watched across the Atlantic Basin, but no organized tropical impacts are anticipated for the local area in the next several days.
Heat and humidity
- Even with increased rain chances, heat and humidity will remain high. Afternoon heat index values can climb higher than the air temperature, so staying hydrated and taking breaks in the shade or air conditioning is advisable, especially for outdoor workers and vulnerable groups.
Planning tips
- Tuesday has the highest overall storm coverage; consider morning outdoor plans and have indoor alternatives ready.
- Expect the usual thunderstorm timing: building late morning to afternoon, tapering in the evening, with lingering showers possible near the coast at night.
- Never drive through water-covered roads during downpours; turn around, don’t drown.
- Secure outdoor items that could be vulnerable to gusty, outflow winds near storms.